Stein Tønnesson
How to Win a Nobel Prize:
An Interview With Stein Tønnesson
Stein Tønnesson, the director of the International Peace Research Institute in Oslo, made waves earlier this week when he predicted jailed Chinese dissident Hu Jia might win this year's Nobel Peace Prize. He's not affiliated with the Nobel organization, though like officials at other peace groups he offers nominations to the Nobel committee. Each year he publishes his best guess on who might win, though that person isn't necessarily the same as his own nominee or favorite candidate.
We caught up with Tønnesson to learn about why Hu tops his list, and how to game the decision-making process of the secretive Nobel committee.
WSJ: Why did Hu Jia top your list?
Tønnesson: It is probably a year when one would want to give a prize to someone who is related to a human rights issue. Since 2003, there has not been a clear human rights prize, and this year we are having the 60th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.
So I started looking for people who are either human rights activists or are persecuted. When I put the Chinese dissident on top, it was for two reasons. One, the only Chinese who has ever received the Nobel Peace Prize is the Dalai Lama, who does not even reside in China. The committee must surely have tried to look for good Chinese candidates. For many years, I speculated that the mothers of the Tiananmen Square protesters would win, but they did not. Then there was Harry Wu. But there hasn't been any obvious candidate.
In the past few years, I have not predicted a Chinese dissident would win because the Nobel Committee would probably be reticent about disturbing China before the Olympics. If a Chinese was given the prize just at a time when the nation's sentiments were geared towards this big national moment, it would probably be badly perceived.
But now China has had the Olympics and it was a great success. Now China would be able to afford and meet such criticism.
WSJ: Has the Prize ever gone to somebody currently in prison?
Tønnesson: Carl von Ossietzky in 1935 had been imprisoned in Nazi Germany, which lead to violent outbursts from Hitler. He issued a prohibition against any German receiving the Nobel Peace Prize.
Then in 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi won after she had been arrested.
WSJ: Choosing Hu Jia would certainly anger the Chinese government. Would the Nobel committee want to do that?
Tønnesson: The committee is constituted of the people selected by the Norwegian parliament. They are veteran politicians, or people a little bit on the margins of the political party that they represent. They operate completely independently of the government, and the parliament does not interfere with the discussions.
Some committees are bold and some are not. The committee that gave the prize to Carl von Ossietzky was very courageous. The committee that refrained from giving the prize to Mahatma Gandhi was motivated by some concerns about British reaction. That was a cowardly committee.
The present committee has been criticized for having awarded the prize to relatively uncontroversial persons who often work on issues that are not directly related to peace. They have widened the prize to include many areas, but have not really given a prize that caused a lot of protest around the world.
WSJ: Has Hu Jia done work that touches on or improves enough lives to warrant a Peace Prize?
Tønnesson: He is very young. He has also been involved in some anti-Japanese demonstrations. That would be a drawback.
But on the other hand, I haven't really seen other candidates that are outstanding in a Chinese context that have the same kind of moral quality that he has. Many have fallen into exile, which makes them less eligible…
We had some debate at our Institute. Some of my colleagues say the committee will probably want to issue the prize to a dissident in an authoritarian regime only if that regime is moving in the authoritarian direction. China has been in a way improving, though perhaps there was some setback during the Olympics, which maybe was only nervousness with this big event… My colleagues say the committee would be more likely to award the Prize to a country that is becoming more and more repressive, such as Russia, as a kind of protest against this and a way of drawing the world's attention to these negative developments.
WSJ: What has been the success rate of your predictions?
Tønnesson: I was right in predicting Kim Dae Jung in 2000. Then I was right about the UN and Kofi Annan in 2001. By that time I had stopped predicting Jimmy Carter, so was surprised in 2002. I never even had the idea for 2003 and 2004. I had the International Atomic Energy Agency and Mohamed ElBaradei up high on my list in 2005, so I was at least half right. I was completely surprised when Muhammad Yunus got the prize in 2006, despite the fact that I had nominated Yunus myself on behalf of someone else. I was right on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Al Gore which got so much attention last year.
–Geoffrey A. Fowler
第一次上牛博，翻譯一下，水平有限，可能有誤，請諒解。
胡佳怎樣獲諾貝爾獎---專訪滕內森
滕內森---國際和平研究協會主席，在近日接受的采訪中預言中國的胡佳將獲得本次諾貝爾和平獎。滕內森先生並不是諾貝爾委員會的成員，但他 和其他和平組織成員一樣，可以向諾貝爾委員會進行提名。每年他都會發表誰會最終獲獎的預測，即使這個人有可能並不是他自己提名的或並不是呼聲最高的提名 者。
我們聯系了滕內森先生，想了解為什麼他會最看好胡佳，以及諾貝爾委員會是通過怎樣的程序作出最終選擇的。
華爾街日報（以下稱華）︰為什麼您最看好胡佳？
滕內森（以下稱滕）︰今年的和平獎可能會傾向于把獎項頒給一位跟人權有關的提名者。因為從2003年起就沒有一個和平獎的獲獎者是完全因為人權而得獎，而今年正好是國際人權宣言發表60周年。
所 以我想尋找一位或是人權運動的積極分子，或是人權受到迫害的人。而我把中國的持不同政見者放在第一位，是出于兩個原因︰一是至今為止唯一一位獲得諾貝爾和 平獎的中國人是達賴喇嘛，但他並不住在中國。諾貝爾委員會一直在尋找合適的中國提名者。這些年我曾推測89年天安門廣場示威者的母親會獲獎，但沒有。然後 又有一位吳宏達，但一直沒有一位很顯著的人能得到提名。
在過去的幾年里，我沒有預測一位中國的持不同政見者會得獎，是因為我覺得諾貝爾委員會會比較謹慎，避免在中國奧運前去打擾中國。當中國的國民情緒完全寄托在奧運這件大事上的同時得獎，可能這個獎會被曲解。
而現在中國的奧運已經開好了，而且開得很成功，那麼中國應該能夠承受得起這樣的批評了。
華︰和平獎曾經頒給過正在獄中的人嗎？
滕︰1935年Carl von Ossietzky 獲得和平獎，被納粹逮捕，並引發了對希特勒的暴力反抗事件，當時希特勒禁止任何德國人接受和平獎。然後1991年昂山素季在獄中獲獎。
華︰頒獎給胡佳會激怒中國政府，諾貝爾委員會願意這麼做嗎？
滕︰委員會是由挪威國會選擇的人員組成，他們是退位的政治家，或是邊緣化的政治家，他們的運作是完全獨立于政府的，國會對他們的決定不能進行干涉。
諾貝爾委員會有時是大膽的，有時不是。決定把和平獎頒給Carl Von Ossietzky的那屆委員會是十分有勇氣的，而害怕英國的反對而不把獎項頒給甘地的那屆委員會則是懦弱的。
目前這屆委員會已經受到了很多批評，批評他們把獎頒給了相對而言並不是直接跟和平有關的人員，不過他們雖然把和平獎的內容放寬到了很多領域，但並沒有一個獎項的頒發引起世界上的反對。
華︰胡佳的所做作為是否有足夠的理由得到這個獎？
滕︰胡佳還很年輕，他曾涉及到一些反日的示威，這是他的不足之處。但另一方面，在中國的大背景下我還沒有找到一個具有象他那樣的品德的突出人物。有一些人被政府流放了，所以不太能選擇。
在 我們協會中也有一些不同意見，我的一些同事認為諾貝爾委員會只有在一個獨裁國家朝著更獨裁方向發展時才會可能把和平獎頒給這個國家的持不同政見者。而中國 在人權方面有進步，雖然在奧運期有退步，但也可能只是因為奧運這件大事讓中國覺得緊張的緣故。他們認為委員會可能會把獎頒給一個越來越壓迫人民的國家，比 如說俄國，作為對這種行為的反對並引起世界的注意。
華︰您提名的人有多少機率能獲獎？
滕︰2000年我猜對了金大中，2001年我猜對了安南，2002年我沒有猜對卡特， 2003年和2004年沒有進行預測。2005年我猜對了國際原子能機構和Mohamed ElBaradei ，所以說我有一半的猜對的。2006年尤納斯獲獎讓我很驚訝，盡管他是我提名的。而去年的國際氣候變化協會和戈爾得到了廣泛關注，這點我也猜對了。
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